Today’s Market

Very strong... Yesterday only a 3% pullback to 78k and it continued upward...
The driving force still comes from ETF funds, with 78k on Friday and 82k yesterday. (Maybe there’s MicroStrategy again this week, they paused last week, and maybe they’ve started again this week)
Let’s keep watching today
Figure 1: From the order book... In recent days, around 80,000, a large collection of sell orders in spot and futures has been eaten up and executed under the push of funds...
Many people are selling off, while more funds are entering...
The range of futures sell orders also corresponds to the range of short liquidity...
So it can also be understood as using short stop-losses to execute these sell orders above...
Currently, it still depends on the mood of the funds in the US stock market...
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I’ve studied why the outside world thinks that US stocks can hit new highs despite the Middle East situation not being fully resolved... There are roughly these points:
1. The market is betting that the situation will be resolved quickly, rather than it has already been resolved... So even if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t substantially open now, it’s already at a new high...
Part of it is Trump’s TACO belief. Those who lost last April don’t want to lose again this time.
2. The recent earnings reports performed very well. The market ignores the Middle East situation because it has found another narrative: fundamentals.
3. The tech and AI narratives are still intact... Tech companies are relatively unaffected by oil prices, and profits are still surging...
4. Technical buying, short covering and stop-losses, record buybacks this year (422 billion so far this year), and a wave of FOMO...
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So, in summary:
Strong fundamentals + AI narrative intact + technical squeeze + TACO + FOMO
And BTC is similar... Funds are pouring in aggressively (ETF + MicroStrategy), combined with continuous short squeeze... (Recent liquidity chart)
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Figure 2: The imbalance color band on the order book has always been my reference for swings...
After eating through the sell orders around 80,000 a few times, it’s relatively balanced... No color band...
Without the color band, I can’t confidently hold a swing short... At most, I’ll do some intraday scalping when I have an entry model.
Figure 3: OI was blown up yesterday by missile timing... New leveraged funds entering again pushed OI to a high point