• Current Price: approximately $80,779 (updated at 18:41 Beijing time), intraday increase of about +2.33%.

• Key Levels: Resistance above at $81,300-$82,200 (previous high + moving average pressure); support below at $78,900 (short-term holder’s cost basis).

• Recent Performance: This morning, it briefly broke through $81,343 but failed to hold, indicating heavy selling pressure above $80k.

⚠️ Core Risk: Leverage-driven “Paper Prosperity”

The foundation of this rally is unstable, with obvious divergence risks between futures and spot markets:

• Single driving force: Since April, the rally has been mainly driven by perpetual futures contracts (high leverage), not genuine spot buying.

• Demand contraction: On-chain data shows that real demand in the spot market remains negative, a structure similar to the early bear market in 2022 with “hot futures, cold spot.” Once leverage funds retreat, a rapid correction is likely.

📉 Market Outlook and Trading Suggestions

• Short-term trend: Expect volatility and pullback. The $80k level has been rejected multiple times, accompanied by whale deleveraging and liquidation of some high-leverage accounts, making market sentiment optimistic but structurally fragile.
$BTC ‌
• Key signals: If support at $78,900 is lost, the price may seek support in the $76,000-$77,500 range; only a volume-supported move above $82,200 can confirm an effective breakout.

Suggestion: Currently, avoid blindly chasing highs; wait for a pullback to support levels or a confirmed breakout with a right-side signal. Be cautious with leverage and prevent liquidity crunches from causing flash crashes.