#gate廣場五月交易分享 Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Surges to Three-Month High Driven by Derivatives

Bitcoin price surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since the end of January. U.S.-listed spot ETFs saw inflows of $153.87 million last week, marking five consecutive weeks of positive inflows. Traders should remain cautious, as the price increase is mainly driven by demand for perpetual contracts, while the spot market remains in contraction. The report notes that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern seen in the early stages of the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin (BTC) price surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since the end of January. Institutional demand supported this price rise, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording over $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching a key psychological level.
Analysts point out that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market. Institutional demand remains strong as Bitcoin's price continues to rise, reaching a high of $80,635 on Monday after a mild consolidation last week.
Institutional demand supported the price increase and remains robust. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $153.87 million in inflows last week, continuing a streak of inflows for five weeks since early April. If this trend persists this week, Bitcoin could see further price gains.
Derivatives-Driven Rally
CryptoQuant’s weekly report last week stated that Bitcoin’s April price increase was entirely driven by the growth in demand for perpetual contracts. Recent Bitcoin price rises are more of a speculative rebound rather than driven by fundamentals, as spot demand remains in contraction. CryptoQuant analyst noted, “The demand for perpetual contracts was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while spot demand has continued to shrink. This configuration has historically been associated with unsustainable price rallies during bear markets.”
“This divergence—rising demand for perpetual contracts while spot demand contracts—indicates that the price increase is leveraged-driven rather than due to accumulation of new coins.
Historically, this setup lacks the structural foundation needed to sustain a rally and is usually resolved through adjustments after perpetual contract positions are unwound.” The current market structure resembles that of early 2022, when demand for perpetual contracts surged alone while spot demand contracted, a pattern that foreshadowed several months of subsequent price declines.
Analysts summarized, “This similarity does not guarantee identical outcomes, but it indicates that the current demand structure aligns with bearish precedents in history. Using on-chain demand decomposition applied across cycles, this pattern is seen as a reliable early indicator of price vulnerability.”
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Approaches Key Psychological Level
As of Monday’s writing, Bitcoin traded above $79,700, maintaining a short-term bullish bias, with prices consolidating above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which are clustered around the mid-$70k range. Bitcoin’s price is also above the 50% retracement level (drawn from January high to February low), approximately $78,962, and near the top of a horizontal parallel channel at $75,680, indicating that the broader upward trend remains supported. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart remains steady around 65, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has rebounded, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum.
Initial resistance is at the psychological level of $80,000, followed by around $82,193 near the 200-day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $83,437, with higher resistance levels around $84,410. Support levels include the 50% retracement at $78,962, with additional buying interest near the upper boundary of the channel at $75,680, and the 100-day EMA slightly below $75,900. Deeper corrections could test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day EMA, located between $74,432 and $74,487, followed by the broader channel bottom and the key support zone around $63,000.