Predict.fun updates: "When will Polymarket launch its official token?"
Probability of launch before June 30 is approximately 9%.

BlockBeats News, on May 5th, a prediction market Predict.fun listed a new “When will Polymarket launch its official token” prediction event, with a trading volume of $546.8k. Among them, the probability that Polymarket will launch its official token before June 30, 2027, is currently reported at 88%; the probability that it will launch before March 31, 2027, is reported at 77%; the probability that it will launch before December 31, 2026, is reported at 55%; the probability that it will launch before September 30, 2026, is reported at 39%; and the probability that it will launch before June 30, 2026, is reported at 9%.

The event settlement rule is: If Polymarket officially launches its official token before the date shown in the title (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will be judged as “Yes.” Otherwise, the market will be judged as “No.” Even if the token launched by Polymarket initially has no utility and is not explicitly labeled as a “governance” token, as long as it is promoted and presented as Polymarket’s official product token, it counts. The token must be capable of being publicly and actively transferred and traded. Simply issuing an announcement does not meet the requirements. Tokens only available for claim also do not meet the requirements.

ERC-1155 or ERC-20 tokens used to represent CTF shares or other positions within the product’s market, as well as any dollar-pegged collateral tokens, are not included in the settlement. Source from official statements by Polymarket (including blog posts, social media channels, or documentation). If necessary, trusted third-party reports may also be referenced. Previously, Polymarket official team member Mustafa (@mustafap0ly) hinted in community interactions today that progress related to the POLY token may arrive soon.