#Gate广场五月交易分享

The capital seesaw effect reappears—Bitcoin sucking blood from gold? Recently, the most "money-grabbing" asset in the financial markets besides U.S. stocks is Bitcoin, which today surged strongly past $80,500, gaining momentous momentum. In stark contrast, gold fell below $4,600 and has been unable to recover. Ironically, a similar situation occurred earlier this year, when gold was once praised and surged past $5,500, while Bitcoin was largely ignored, dropping below $60,000 at its lowest. Just a few months later, the situation reversed completely. Does this switch in roles imply the seesaw effect of capital is reappearing, with Bitcoin retaliating and draining the gold market?
1. Core phenomenon: structural differentiation in capital rotation
Real-time price divergence
Bitcoin: Broke through $80k (RMB 552k) on May 5, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.13%, rebounding 45% from April lows;
Gold: Spot price hovers around $4,587 per ounce, down 18% from the high at the beginning of the year, ETF holdings drop to the lowest since 2024.
Historical ratio change
The Bitcoin/Gold ratio fell from the 2025 peak of 40 ounces per Bitcoin (1 BTC = 40 ounces of gold) to the current 17.4 ounces per Bitcoin, but still above the 10-year average (8-12 ounces), reflecting Bitcoin’s relative valuation advantage remains.
2. The fundamental drivers of capital flow
(1) Sensitivity to liquidity
Bitcoin: Highly sensitive to global financial liquidity. After the Fed paused rate hikes, leverage in the crypto market quickly rebounded (perpetual contract funding rates turned positive).
Spot ETF: Net inflow of $2.4 billion in one week, accounting for 15% of daily trading volume.
Gold: Suppressed by real interest rates and the dollar. The US 10-year TIPS yield rose to 1.8%, hitting a new high since 2025.
The dollar index stabilized above 108, increasing gold holding costs.
(2) Reconfiguration of risk attributes
Bitcoin attracts young capital due to its narrative as a digital safe haven, while gold is sold off by institutions for dollars during liquidity crises.
(3) On-chain data reveals capital migration
Bitcoin on-chain activity cooled but whale holdings increased: active addresses dropped to 890k per day (a 2-year low), but addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC rose to 41.5%.
Gold ETFs continue to bleed: global gold ETF net outflows for 11 consecutive weeks, with total holdings decreasing by 197 tons (about $12 billion).
3. Mid- to long-term positioning: complementary rather than substitutive
Bitcoin: A volatile asset in the digital age
Advantages:
- Scarcity driven by halving cycles (block rewards to drop to 0.78 BTC in 2028)
- Accelerated institutionalization (U.S. government holds 330k BTC, accounting for 1.6% of circulating supply)
Bottlenecks:
- Volatility exceeds 80% (gold only 15%), not yet incorporated into mainstream reserve assets.
Gold: The ultimate anchor of the credit system
Irreplaceability:
- Global central banks increased gold holdings by 228 tons in Q1 2026, with China’s reserves rising to 4.9%.
- Supported by millennia-old monetary consensus, enhancing resilience against extreme risks (such as sovereign debt crises).
Practical constraints:
- Low efficiency of physical delivery, difficult to meet the transaction needs of the digital era.