‍#Gate广场五月交易分享

BTC has returned above $80k, but on-chain activity has dropped to a two-year low.
Bitcoin today strongly broke through $80,500, reaching a new high in this rebound cycle.
However, one indicator warrants attention: Santiment data shows wallet activity hitting a two-year low, with only 531k wallets transferring daily, and 203k newly created wallets.
🔍
Core Contradiction Analysis
1. The contrast between on-chain calmness and price enthusiasm
Active addresses sharply decline:
Currently, about 531k wallets transfer daily, with only 203k new wallets created (down over 40% from the 2024 peak), the lowest level since March 2024.
Transaction depth shrinks:
Despite BTC breaking above $80k, on-chain transaction volume has not expanded accordingly. During the nearly 5-week price increase of 22%, on-chain participation remained subdued.
2. The market essence behind the divergence
Stock game characteristics:
The rally is mainly driven by leveraged funds in the futures market (shorts liquidated for $359 million within 24 hours), rather than new capital inflows.
Spot ETF weekly net inflow is $630 million, but mainly from institutional rebalancing rather than incremental funds.
Concentration of holdings intensifies:
Medium-sized wallets (100–1,000 BTC) inflow to exchanges has fallen to 2023 levels, while long-term holders’ share of holdings has risen to a record high, indicating rapid concentration of chips into whales.
3. Reduced selling pressure favors upward movement?
Inflow from medium wallets in bn is at a 2023 low, indicating that selling pressure is actually very small.
⚠
Hidden risks behind divergence
Liquidity trap:
BTC reserves on exchanges have decreased for 7 consecutive weeks (a total outflow of 105k BTC), but buy-side depth remains insufficient. If a sudden sell-off occurs, a liquidity crisis similar to the Luna collapse in 2022 could reemerge.
Leverage bubble buildup:
Perpetual contract funding rates are low, but demand for bullish contracts above $80,000 in the options market has surged.
Open interest in derivatives is near historical peaks, indicating the market’s over-reliance on leverage to sustain the rally.
Stagnant new ecosystem growth:
The shrinking number of new wallets reflects stagnant user growth.
On-chain application indicators such as DeFi locked value and NFT trading volume have not surpassed previous highs, indicating the current rally lacks fundamental ecosystem support.
📉
Market outlook and strategy
Scenario 1: Fake breakout attracting longs (probability 60%)
Trigger condition:
Failure to hold above $80,500 within 3 days, with a single exchange deposit >5,000 BTC on-chain.
Target level:
Quick drop back to $74,680 (April low), with an extreme test of $65,000 (institutional ETF cost zone).
Operation:
Use high-position puts for downside protection, with a stop-loss set at $81,300.
Scenario 2: Short squeeze rally (probability 40%)
Trigger condition:
Weekly close above $82,000, with Coinbase showing withdrawals of 10,000 BTC or more.
Target level:
Short-term push to $85,000, but strong resistance exists in the $88,000–$95,000 range.
Operation:
Combine spot holdings with protective puts to avoid naked long positions.
On-chain monitoring focus:
Whale dormant addresses showing unusual activity (watch wallets inactive for over 10 years).
Large flows on bn/Cbase (current Cbase daily inflow once reached 8,500 BTC).