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Today’s Gold Market Analysis — Short-Term Bearish Momentum May Continue

1. Core Price Dynamics

‌Latest Spot Gold Price‌：

‌$4,537.93 per ounce‌ (Data as of the morning of May 5, 2026, Beijing time), up $15.72 from the previous day, a 0.35% increase.

The intraday fluctuation range is $4,587.09–$4,628.69 per ounce. The day’s lowest point touched $4,587.09, indicating that selling pressure is still present in the market.

‌Futures Market Performance‌：

Gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange are reported at $4,642.90 per ounce, down 1.1% for the day, continuing the recent pullback trend.

2. Key Market Drivers

‌Geopolitics and Safe-Haven Sentiment‌：

Tensions in the Middle East continue (the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has been recurring, and the UAE was hit by missiles), but market expectations for ceasefire talks have weakened safe-haven demand. After gold surged at the beginning of the escalation of the conflict, it quickly fell back, reflecting unstable short-term safe-haven capital flows.

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‌Federal Reserve Policy and Dollar Pressure‌：

The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, emphasizing maintaining high interest rates to curb inflation, which strengthens the dollar and suppresses gold priced in USD.

Concerns that rate cuts may be delayed have intensified, reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

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‌Technical Breakdown Risk‌：

Since the gold price’s historical high in January ($5,602), it has pulled back by nearly 18%. Daily prices are trading under pressure below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment.

Pay attention to the key support level at $4,510 per ounce; if it is lost, the price may test the $4,450 area.

3. Outlook for the Coming Period

‌Short-Term Caution‌：

Technical analysis indicates that “the path of least resistance remains downward” (FXStreet). The gold price needs to break above $4,620 to help ease the selling pressure.

Intraday volatility has increased, driven by a tug-of-war between inflation expectations and interest-rate pressure, sparked by rising oil prices (Brent crude breaks above $115).

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‌Long-Term Optimism‌：

JPMorgan maintains a target of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, and is optimistic about central bank gold purchases (Q1 global demand reached a record $19.3 billion) and portfolio diversification needs.

Pullbacks are viewed as opportunities for long-term allocation, but investors should remain alert to high volatility (such as the extreme single-day plunge of 9.8% on January 30).