#Gate广场五月交易分享

Today’s Crude Oil Market Analysis

1. Real-Time Price Performance

‌Brent Crude Oil‌:

Main contract quote ‌$112.99 per barrel‌, down $1.45 from the previous settlement price, a decrease of 1.27%.

Intraday trading range is $112.81–$114.07 per barrel, with a high of $114.44 during the session.

‌WTI Crude Oil‌:

June futures closed at ‌$106.42 per barrel‌, a daily increase of 4.39%;

Briefly broke above $106 in early trading but fell back, down 1.30% for the day.

2. Core Driving Factors

‌Geopolitical Tensions Persist‌:

The Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis remains unresolved, and the Fujairah port fire incident in the UAE heightens supply disruption concerns.

Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have stalled, with the Trump administration rejecting Iran’s phased negotiation proposal. Reports indicate the U.S. military has developed strike plans against Iran.

‌OPEC Structural Fission‌:

On May 1, the UAE announced its withdrawal from the OPEC+ alliance, sparking concerns about the collapse of the oil-producing countries’ cooperation mechanism. Although actual production increase is limited by shipping blockades, this could weaken OPEC’s capacity to enforce production cuts in the long term.

‌Inventory Warning Signals‌:

Institutions warn that global crude oil inventories may fall to “operational lows” between May 9-30. If blockades persist, prices could face exponential upward risks.

3. Technical Aspects and Market Sentiment

‌Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies‌: Brent crude repeatedly crosses moving averages during the day, with RSI indicators entering mid-to-high zones, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure.

‌Key Price Ranges‌:

Resistance levels: Brent ‌$113–$115, WTI ‌$108–$110‌;

Support levels: Brent ‌$100–$95, WTI ‌$95‌.

4. Future Market Focus

‌Geopolitical Developments‌: Whether the U.S. military will take action against Iran, and the progress of negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

‌Economic Data‌: U.S. evening releases of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and crude oil inventory data (API/EIA).

‌Policy Risks‌: UAE’s plans for capacity release after leaving OPEC, and whether other oil-producing countries will follow suit.