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The capital seesaw effect reappears—Bitcoin sucking blood from gold?

Recently, the most “money-attracting” asset in the financial markets besides U.S. stocks is Bitcoin, which today surged strongly past $80,500, shining brightly. In stark contrast, gold fell below $4,600, losing momentum. Ironically, a similar situation occurred earlier this year, when gold was once praised and broke through $5,500, while Bitcoin was ignored, dropping below $60,000. Just a few months later, the situation reversed completely. Does this switch in status imply the reemergence of the capital seesaw effect, with Bitcoin biting back and draining the gold market?

1. Core phenomenon: structural differentiation in capital rotation

‌Real-time price divergence‌
‌Bitcoin‌: Broke $80k (RMB 552k) on May 5, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.13%, rebounding 45% from April lows;

‌Gold‌: Spot price hovers around $4,587 per ounce, down 18% from the early-year high, ETF holdings drop to the lowest since 2024.

‌Historical ratio change‌

Bitcoin/gold ratio fell from the 2025 peak of 40 ounces per BTC (1 BTC = 40 ounces of gold) to the current 17.4 ounces per BTC, but remains above the 10-year average (8-12 ounces), indicating Bitcoin’s relative valuation advantage still exists.

2. The fundamental driving force behind capital flow

(1)‌ Sensitivity differences to liquidity‌

‌Bitcoin‌: Highly sensitive to global financial liquidity

After the Fed paused interest rate hikes, leverage in the crypto market quickly rebounded (perpetual contract funding rates turned positive)

Spot ETF weekly net inflow of $2.4 billion, accounting for 15% of daily trading volume

‌Gold‌: Suppressed by real interest rates and the dollar

U.S. 10-year TIPS yield rose to 1.8%, a new high since 2025

Dollar index stabilized above 108, increasing gold holding costs

(2)‌ Rebuilding risk attributes‌

Bitcoin attracts young capital with its narrative of digital safe-haven asset, while gold is sold off by institutions for dollars during liquidity crises.

(3)‌ On-chain data reveals capital migration‌:

‌Bitcoin on-chain activity cools but whale accumulation increases‌:

Active addresses drop to 890k/day (a 2-year low), but addresses holding >1,000 BTC rise to 41.5%

‌Gold ETF continues to bleed‌:

Global gold ETF outflows for 11 consecutive weeks, with total holdings down by 197 tons (about $12 billion)

3. Medium- and long-term positioning: complementary rather than substitutive

‌Bitcoin: a volatile asset for the digital age‌

Advantages‌:

Driven by halving cycles that increase scarcity (block rewards to drop to 0.78 BTC in 2028)

Accelerating institutionalization (U.S. government holds 330k BTC, accounting for 1.6% of circulating supply)

‌Bottlenecks‌:

Volatility exceeds 80% (gold only 15%), not yet incorporated into mainstream reserve assets

‌Gold: the ultimate anchor of the credit system‌

Indispensability‌:

Global central banks increased gold holdings by 228 tons in Q1 2026, with China’s reserves rising to 4.9%

Millennium currency consensus supports its ability to resist extreme risks (such as sovereign debt crises)

‌Practical constraints‌:

Physical delivery is inefficient and difficult to meet the transaction needs of the digital era