Iran and the U.S. have clashed in the Strait of Hormuz, and the crypto market is on another rollercoaster! Bitcoin has recently surged sharply, what's going on?

First, why did Bitcoin recently spike to $80k?
Mainly because MicroStrategy is buying aggressively again! At the end of April, they bought over 30k BTC in one go, spending $2.5 billion. Now, they hold a total of 818k BTC, with an average cost of around $75k. These institutions are acting as a "Bitcoin bank," directly boosting market confidence. Coupled with leveraged funds triggering a sell-off, the price shot from over $70k to $81,000. This is purely driven by institutions, not retail traders.
Now, Iran and the U.S. are truly clashing in the Persian Gulf.
Trump launched "Project Freedom" to escort ships, resulting in Iran directly firing missiles and drones at U.S. warships. The U.S. denies being hit, but a South Korean commercial ship was also attacked. Over 2,000 ships are blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world's oil passing through here. Oil prices soared past $113. The market initially rose on expectations of successful escort missions, but once the news broke, Bitcoin instantly retreated, liquidating billions of dollars. High leverage amplified volatility tenfold, exposing the crypto market's awkward position of "wanting to hedge risks but fearing risks."
The impact on the crypto market is threefold:
Volatility will explode: Any missile news could cause intraday swings of 10-20%, so avoid high leverage.
Oil price inflation transmission: Before the new Fed chair takes office, liquidity tightens, and Bitcoin suffers.
BTC's positioning dilemma: Is it "digital gold" or a risk asset? In the short term, risk remains dominant, but institutions are holding firm and not selling.
What’s next for Bitcoin and crude oil?
Short-term (1-2 weeks): $80k remains a strong support for Bitcoin. Holding it could push prices to $82k; if not, it may retest $75k-$75,000. Tonight’s U.S. press conference is crucial!
Crude oil remains high at $110-$115, sideways. If the conflict doesn’t escalate (likely easing before Trump’s China visit on May 14), oil prices may gradually decline.
Medium-term outlook: If escort operations succeed and negotiations progress, Bitcoin could retest $85k resistance; if a major conflict occurs, expect a pullback to around $70k to catch a breath.
Summary: This rebound is fierce, but don’t chase highs! Hold off on new positions and wait for a pullback to enter. With news-driven and leveraged markets, keep your positions light. Be patient and wait for tonight’s 8 PM news—play rationally.