#Gate广场五月交易分享

My Bitcoin intraday short plan
1. Current Market Overview
BTC contract current price 78,900 USDT, up 0.68% in 24 hours, intraday fluctuation range 78,176 — 80,579. Notably, BTC briefly broke above 80,000 in the early morning, reaching a high of 80,579, then sharply retreated about 1,679 USDT (approximately 2.1%), currently oscillating around 78,900. This "sharp rise and fall" pattern indicates strong selling pressure above 80,000.
Market news to watch: BTC spot ETF has seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a single-day inflow of $629 million on May 1, and institutional funds continue to enter. Michael Saylor's Strategy company has been continuously buying BTC through STRC bonds on a large scale. However, after the Federal Reserve rate decision, there was a $182 million liquidation (longs account for $177 million), indicating macro uncertainties.
2. Technical Signal Analysis
Signals supporting short positions
The sharp rise and fall is the most direct trigger for this short. BTC today fell from the high of 80,579 to 78,900, a decline of about 2.1%. The pressure above 80,000 is clear — the price surged but was pushed back, indicating significant profit-taking and selling pressure in this zone, making further breakthroughs difficult in the short term.
The 15-minute chart has already broken below MA20 (current price 78,939 < MA20 79,589), clearly signaling short-term weakness. Closing below the short-term moving average support indicates the bullish structure on the 15-minute chart has loosened.
The daily CCI is 125.88, still in the overbought zone (top formation), indicating a short-term overheated condition on the daily chart. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest level in nearly 30 days (5,753, compared to a maximum width of 13,032 over 30 days), a strong reversal signal — after narrowing, a directional breakout is highly likely. BTC just surged and then fell back; if the reversal direction is downward, it is directly favorable for shorting.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 47 to 40, indicating market sentiment leaning toward fear, with short-term capital tending to withdraw.
Overall judgment: sharp rise and fall + break below 15-minute MA20 + daily overbought + Bollinger Band narrowing and reversal signals provide clear technical basis for shorting. The pressure above 80,000 has been validated. However, the 15-minute chart is already in oversold territory (CCI = -142, RSI = 36), indicating a strong short-term rebound demand; the medium-term trend remains bullish; funding rates turning positive increase the cost of short positions. The shorting logic is clearer than yesterday (the rise and fall confirmed resistance above), but entry timing should avoid short-term oversold rebounds.
3. Short Entry Strategy
Rebound Entry for Short
The 15-minute CCI = -142 and RSI = 36.62 are already in oversold territory, likely to rebound in the short term. Wait for the price to rebound to the 79,500 — 80,000 zone before entering short, which is a natural target after the rise and fall, also near the 15-minute MA20 (79,589). Re-entering here after the rebound can significantly reduce the risk of being shaken out by oversold rebounds.
Place limit orders to short at 79,500 — 80,000 (near the 15-minute MA20, the rebound target zone). The direction is short (open short position). Leverage recommended 30x — 50x; trend reversal trading should not use excessive leverage. Position size controlled at 5% — 10% of total capital, small trial positions. Margin mode recommended is isolated margin to avoid full portfolio impact.
4. Take Profit and Stop Loss Settings
Stop Loss (must be strictly enforced)
Plan A (rebound entry): set stop loss at 80,600 — 80,800, based on the logic that breaking above today’s high of 80,579 and then failing the rebound indicates the upward momentum has weakened, and resistance has been overcome, allowing bulls to regain control.
Stop loss range about 1.5% — 2.5%, corresponding to a margin loss of 7.5% — 12.5% at 50x leverage.
Take Profit
First target 78,200 — near today’s low of 78,176, the first support level after the rebound. There may be buying interest here (similar to the support effect of 0.1060 on DOGE yesterday). Close half the position to lock in profits after reaching this level.
Second target 77,700 — near the 4-hour MA30 (77,734), a core support for the medium-term trend. Falling below this indicates the 4-hour bullish arrangement is loosening, and the trend may turn, but it remains the strongest bull line. Close all positions here without greed.
Third target 76,800 — near the 4-hour MA120 (76,826), only reachable in extreme conditions, for reference only, not actively pursued.
Recommend scaling out: close 50% at the first target 78,200; close remaining positions at the second target 77,700.
Risk reminder: The above is a personal trading plan, not investment advice. The market is risky; please assess and bear the risks yourself.