Controlled Gunpowder Barrel in the Gulf: Diplomacy or Conflict?

• Contradictory Signals in the Gulf: While ship seizures and attacks on oil facilities occur on one side, the U.S. is trying to manage the process with a "escort" mission. Tensions are high, but parties are still opening the door to diplomacy.
• Trump’s Non-Hawkish Stance: Despite Iran’s strategic moves (such as the attack on the UAE oil facility), the U.S. administration’s refusal to say "ceasefire broken" is interpreted by markets as an effort to keep tensions under control.
• Global Markets’ Dilemma: Markets are ready to price in a peace news with enthusiasm; however, they are cautious and "dragging their feet," showing a negative stance against the possibility of escalation.
• U.S. Data and Bond Pressure: Strong factory orders and expectations from the U.S. reinforce the perception that the Fed will remain hawkish, pushing bond yields upward.
• Yen and Gold Movements: Despite interventions by the Bank of Japan, the Yen continues to weaken, while spot gold at $4,540 reflects a search for safe haven.
• Domestic Inflation Pressure: Turkey’s April inflation exceeding expectations at 32.37% annually, along with disruptive energy costs, continues to be the most important agenda item in the domestic market.