#Gate广场五月交易分享 #油价突破110美元 The Strait of Hormuz reignites with gunfire! Oil prices surge by 6% in a single day—are we facing the fourth oil crisis?

On May 5, 2026, the international crude oil market was once again shaken by the shock of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Just yesterday, the United Arab Emirates' oil industrial zone was suddenly attacked by Iranian missiles, with flames soaring into the sky; Iran further claimed to have "repelled" U.S. warships attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil temporarily broke through $115 per barrel during trading, rising over 6%, while WTI crude stabilized above $106. When Trump threatened to "erase" Iran from the face of the Earth, global energy markets' nerves were stretched to the limit. Today’s oil market—are we seeing a short-term spike, or the start of a new super cycle?
Middle Eastern Powder Keg: The "Life and Death Line" of the Strait of Hormuz
　　The Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil transportation route, carries about one-third of global seaborne crude oil trade. However, since the escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict, this "maritime lifeline" has effectively been under blockade. Iran released a new map of strait control, warning it will intercept all "violating ships," and plans to legislate to strengthen military control over the strait. The Trump administration has launched the so-called "Freedom Plan," attempting to coordinate relevant countries, insurers, and shipping organizations through "non-military guided actions" to open the route, but in the absence of allied support and a clear ceasefire guarantee, whether this mechanism can break the deadlock remains a huge question mark.　　
More concerning is that the UAE Ministry of Defense confirmed that on May 4, it intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones, with 3 people injured. This is the first attack on the UAE since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, marking an escalation from bilateral confrontation to a regional crisis.
UK Prime Minister urgently calls on Iran to "meaningfully engage in negotiations," but Tehran's stance is firm, and both sides' negotiation timetable remains distant.
Supply and Demand Imbalance: OPEC’s Continuous Production Increases Fail to Fill the Gap
　　Amid escalating regional tensions, OPEC issued a statement on May 3, announcing that seven key OPEC+ oil-producing countries will increase daily crude oil output by 188k barrels in June. This is the first decision after the UAE's official withdrawal from "OPEC+," and marks the third consecutive month of production increases. However, this increase sharply contrasts with soaring oil prices—market perception is that an additional 188k barrels per day cannot compensate for the supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.　　
Data does not lie. Over the past nine weeks, the U.S. has exported more than 250 million barrels of crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest exporter. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and other Asian countries are turning to the U.S. to fill Middle Eastern supply gaps. However, this surge in exports is rapidly depleting U.S. domestic inventories, which have fallen by 52 million barrels over four weeks. Due to infrastructure and shipping bottlenecks, U.S. export capacity is nearing its limit. This means that even if the U.S. ramps up production, it will be difficult to fully replace Middle Eastern supplies in the short term.　　
Saudi Arabia recently announced that the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude in May 2026 was significantly raised compared to the previous month: the premium for Asian markets is +$19.50 per barrel, up $17; for Europe, +$27.85 per barrel, up $25; for the U.S., +$14.60 per barrel, up $10. The sharp increase in Saudi OSP directly reflects their assessment of supply tightness and provides a solid bottom support for global oil prices.
Inventory at a Critical Level: Global Crude Oil Stocks Drop to Dangerous Levels
　　As of April 10, 2026, U.S. total crude oil inventories stood at 188k barrels, an increase of 188k barrels in nearly a month. While seemingly ample, the structure is highly unbalanced: strategic reserves are at 872.99M barrels, down 8.28M barrels in the same period; commercial inventories are at 409.18M barrels, up 6.26M. More dangerously, Cushing inventories are only 463.8M barrels, up 14.55M in a month, but still at historically low levels. If the blockade of Hormuz continues, Cushing stocks will rapidly deplete, triggering a "short squeeze" in WTI prices.　　
In Europe, January 2026 commercial crude stocks were 425.2 million barrels, down 6.5 million from the previous month, a -1.51% change. OECD commercial stocks are at 29.76M barrels, only slightly up by 2 million barrels from last month. The three major agencies (IEA, EIA, OPEC) have significantly downgraded their 2026 inventory forecasts, indicating the global oil market is shifting rapidly from "loose" to "tight" or even "shortage."
Financial Linkage: How Soaring Oil Prices Are Ripping Through Global Markets
　　The surge in oil prices is never an isolated event. On May 4, U.S. Treasury yields followed oil higher, hitting a one-month high; the dollar index widened its gains, bouncing from two weeks' lows; offshore yuan briefly rose over 100 points before turning lower, falling below 6.83. U.S. stock markets collectively declined, with the Dow dropping over 1%, marking the largest one-month decline; S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell, retreating from record highs. Logistics sectors led the decline, with FedEx and United Parcel Service dropping 10.47% and 9.12%, respectively.　　This "stock-bond-currency-commodity" four-way sell-off exemplifies the classic impact of high oil prices on the global economy.
When energy costs account for over 30% of corporate operating expenses, inflation expectations will rapidly heat up, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates and suppress economic growth. Fed Chair Williams recently forecast that U.S. inflation will reach 3% in 2026 and only return to the 2% target in 2027—meaning high oil prices will continue to erode corporate profits and consumer purchasing power.
Is $120 Oil Just a Matter of Time?
　　Considering the current situation, breaking $120 per barrel for Brent crude is only a matter of time. The core logic includes three points:
First, if the Hormuz blockade persists for more than a month, the world will lose about 18 million barrels per day of seaborne crude, roughly 20% of global production, which no increase can fully compensate for;
Second, U.S. inventory depletion is faster than expected, and the risk of Cushing short squeeze is mounting;
Third, the summer driving season is approaching, and demand in the Northern Hemisphere will peak, further widening the supply-demand gap.　　
However, risks should not be ignored. Trump’s "maximum pressure" strategy could backfire; if Iran is cornered, it may take more aggressive military actions, leading to prolonged strait closures. Additionally, Wall Street banks are drastically cutting back on oil and gas investments—Morgan Stanley has reduced loans to oil, natural gas, and coal companies by 54% year-over-year—long-term capital expenditure shortfalls will exacerbate future supply shortages.　　
For investors, the current strategy should be "defensive first, offensive second." Energy stocks, gold, and inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are top picks; airlines, shipping, and chemical sectors should be wary of rising costs.　
The oil market on May 5, 2026, is a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions and supply-demand fundamentals. The smoke has yet to clear from the Strait of Hormuz, yet oil prices have already surged above $110. History shows that every oil crisis marks the collapse of the old order and the beginning of a new one.
Is the Fourth Oil Crisis Really Coming? The answer may be revealed within the next 30 days. But one thing is certain: energy security has never been more important. Whether for nations, companies, or individuals, everyone must prepare for a prolonged battle in the "high oil price era." After all, in this uncertain world, the only certainty is uncertainty itself.