I will pivot bullish at some point, but right now, the puzzle pieces simply don’t align.

Macro is driving this market, and currently the backdrop is far from supportive:
- US–Iran tensions are escalating again, with real impact on global markets and energy supply routes
- Oil is ripping higher, recently pushing above $110+ as supply fears return
- Equities are showing weakness, reflecting a broader risk-off environment amid geopolitical uncertainty
This matters more than people think.
When oil spikes, it feeds inflation expectations and tightens financial conditions — and that’s historically a headwind for risk assets. We’re seeing that play out again.
Bitcoin is not isolated from this.
The major trend on BTC is still down / choppy at best
Price action has been range-bound with failed breakouts, heavily reacting to macro headlines
Rising oil and geopolitical stress are actively capping upside momentum
On top of that:
BTC is sitting below multiple high timeframe resistances
Every bounce lacks follow-through
Sentiment flips on every headline — not exactly what you want in a strong trend
There’s also a clear macro linkage forming:
If tensions escalate further, oil likely pushes higher which will results in more pressure on risk assets (including BTC)
I will pivot bullish at one point, but not until the situation is resolved.