Berkshire Hathaway just finished its shareholder meeting.

Warren Buffett said three words on stage:
1. Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have now solidified at 397 billion, reaching a record high.
2. The current capital market is like a casino next to a church, and there have never been so many people.
3. Good opportunities appear when no one answers the phone.
Buffett feels that we are now in a gambler's carnival phase, far from the bottoming-out time, and the current opportunities are not good.
I thought about why Buffett might think now is not the time to bottom out.
The NASDAQ hit a new high, oil hit a new high amid ongoing war, financing amounts hit a new high, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise.
All these indicators reaching new highs are mainly based on AI.
It's a bit like real estate pre-sales, because I am optimistic about the next 10 years of real estate, pre-sales, and building materials markets, which are wildly increasing in price, and people are betting on the entire future rise of real estate.
But how much economic prosperity AI can create, we have no idea.
Berkshire Hathaway now feels like it is waiting for a historic pullback.
Using real estate as an analogy, building materials (cloud services), utilities (computing power), and loan interest rates (U.S. Treasuries) are all rising in price, and you're betting that housing prices will continue to go up.
Young people will tell you, I don’t buy houses at all, I rent.
The same logic applies to U.S. stocks, oil, and U.S. Treasuries—obvious money is becoming more expensive.
Buffett is waiting for money to become more expensive and assets to depreciate, then buying madly.
When Buffett makes his move, it feels like he might buy half of the U.S. stock market this time.