Oil, War, and the Balance of Power:

Two topics currently being discussed in the energy market are actually different parts of the same story: the possibility of Saudi Arabia leaving OPEC and the escalating tension between the US and Iran. While these two developments may seem independent at first glance, when it comes to the oil market, no topic is truly separate. The tension between the US and Iran has gone far beyond a classic geopolitical conflict, transforming into a struggle directly targeting energy supply. As you know, the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and surrounding routes are the most critical transit points for global oil trade. Oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately 20% of global supply. We are witnessing that any risk to this route instantly changes not only prices but also market psychology. The critical question at this point is: What strategy will Saudi Arabia pursue in such a risky environment?

OPEC membership requires collective action in production decisions. However, in periods of high uncertainty, such as the possibility of war, countries generally prioritize national interests over collective wisdom. The possibility of Saudi Arabia leaving OPEC takes on new meaning precisely in this context. If US-Iran tensions in the region escalate into a hot conflict, there could be serious disruptions to oil supply. Iran's exports are already limited by sanctions. This is where Saudi Arabia comes in. But will it remain within OPEC or act independently?

Leaving OPEC would give Saudi Arabia complete strategic freedom. In a war scenario, this freedom is vital. Because if a supply shock occurs, Saudi Arabia could rapidly increase production and become the sole stabilizer of the market. Or, conversely, it could restrict supply and drive prices up, maximizing its profits. Making such decisions within OPEC requires serious negotiation. However, wartime situations may require rapid decision-making. Therefore, the possibility of leaving OPEC can be interpreted not only as an economic but also as a military-geopolitical reflex.

The US-Iran tension and Saudi Arabia's potential exit from OPEC would create two opposing effects on oil prices:
-Geopolitical risk premium: The possibility of war pushes prices up. -Change in supply strategy: If Saudi Arabia increases production, prices will fall. In a market where these two effects clash, classic price prediction models lose their meaning. Volatility can return to normal. So the question is no longer "will oil prices rise or fall?", but rather "at what speed and to what extent will they fluctuate?"

From the US perspective, the tension with Iran is not only geopolitical but also part of its energy strategy. Thanks to the shale oil revolution, the US has become a net energy exporter. This has made high oil prices more tolerable than in the past. In fact, high prices, up to a certain point, support the US energy sector. However, an uncontrolled price increase would trigger global inflation and shake financial markets. Therefore, the US's primary goal is to keep prices within a high but controllable range. The achievement of this goal largely depends on the position Saudi Arabia takes.

Today, the real balance in the oil market is established through OPEC+ rather than OPEC alone. Coordination between Russia and Saudi Arabia, in particular, is the most critical factor determining the direction of prices. The possibility of a US-Iran war would also challenge this balance. Russia benefits from high prices. However, excessively high prices lead to a contraction in demand. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has to balance its strategic relationship with the US with its own economic goals. Leaving OPEC further complicates this equation, because coordination becomes optional, not mandatory.

In conclusion, the possibility of Saudi Arabia leaving OPEC and the US-Iran tension are actually two different faces of the same transformation. One is structural, the other is conjunctural. But when considered together, the picture that emerges is clear: oil is no longer just a commodity priced by supply and demand. It is also a geopolitical weapon, a strategic leverage, and a central element in the global power struggle.