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About the whole thing where the U.S. and China are clashing over sanctions, the most ruthless card still hasn’t been played yet.
The U.S. issues an order: You are not allowed to do business with these companies, or I will deal with you.
China immediately follows with an order: You must do business with these companies, or I will deal with you.
Both sides issue red-headed official documents, and their wording is equally tough.
Now, a huge dilemma has directly smashed onto the heads of every company caught in the middle—especially banks.
If you listen to the U.S., you immediately violate China’s “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law,” and massive fines are waiting, and executives might even end up in jail.
If you listen to China, continuing to provide financial services to those companies is basically a direct standoff with the U.S.’s “secondary sanctions.”
Standoff over what?
Over whether they dare to flip that switch.
The switch that can instantly “kick you out” of the global payments system with a single click.
Once you’re kicked out, an international bank instantly becomes an information island. It’s not a question of whether you have more money or less—it's that every one of your cross-border dollar businesses can’t send out a single dollar and can’t take in a single dollar. It’s a direct shutdown.
You can imagine a scene like this:
In an office building in Shanghai, on a bank manager’s desk, two documents are placed side by side. One is an order from the U.S. Treasury—cold and merciless, word for word. The other is an instruction from China’s Ministry of Commerce—black and white. The pen in his hand hovers in midair, and sweat slides down from his forehead, dripping onto the desk.
At this moment, the phone on the desk suddenly rings. On the screen appears the number he least wants to answer—the one from the company that the U.S. named, but that we have demanded must be served.
Should he pick up the call or not?
If he answers, the bank’s entire international business could be zeroed out overnight.
If he doesn’t, he will immediately have to face legal accountability at home.
This is no longer just a business game.
To put it plainly, they’ve put two knives on the necks of all multinational companies—one called “the market,” and one called “the system”—forcing you to choose which is more deadly. $ETH