Analyst: $60,000 Range Likely to Become Bottom of Current Bear Market Without Extreme Black Swan Events

On May 5, analyst (@Murphychen888) stated that the trend reversal of long-term holders (LTH) net positions typically precedes the bottom of Bitcoin prices, and the reduction of supply-side pressure creates conditions for bottom formation. Since February 10, 2026, LTH net positions have begun to rise, accumulating an increase of approximately 324,000 BTC by April 30. During the same period, short-term holders (STH) reduced their holdings by 184,000 BTC, with some transitioning to new LTH. After accounting for this conversion, existing LTH actively increased their holdings by about 140,000 BTC, becoming a significant force driving the growth of LTH positions. In comparison with historical cycles, during the last bear market, LTH net positions bottomed out and began to rise on July 23, 2022. Had it not been for the panic selling triggered by the FTX collapse, the $19,000 to $22,000 range might have already become the bottom area at that time. Similarly, after the recovery of LTH positions in July 2019, excluding the extreme ‘312’ event, the $7,000 to $9,000 range was the bottom area. With LTH net positions bottoming out and rising on February 10, 2026, if no extreme black swan events occur subsequently, the $62,000 to $65,000 range is expected to become the bottom area of the current bear market, or at least very close to it. The increase in LTH net positions indicates that more STHs are choosing to hold, while believers continue to accumulate, which will inevitably drive up the bottom and accelerate the bottom formation process. The shift in supply and demand dynamics is the core data to watch in a bear market.