In the past two days, I’ve seen people use the logic “stablecoin supply is rising = we’re about to take off,” as if that were a straight-line conclusion. They even casually treat ETF inflows and outflows as the master switch for off-exchange capital… and honestly, I can’t help but find it a bit funny. More stablecoins may mean waiting for the right opportunity, it may mean preparing inventory for market making, or it may simply be that everyone sells risky assets and exchanges them into stablecoins to lie back and relax. There is a correlation, but please don’t turn that into cause-and-effect.

ETFs too: the whole subscription and redemption setup has its own timing and rhythm, and it’s not the same pipeline as the little bit of “off-exchange money” in your and my wallets. Don’t see one side rising and start imagining that the other side will definitely surge along with it. Anyway, putting it plainly: don’t give yourself courage based on a single chart—the market is best at slapping you when you think everything is “certain.”

Also, airdrop season is pretty magical in its own way. The task platform’s anti-bot/anti-witchcraft measures turn everything into a points system, like you’re clocking in for work—I’m just too lazy to grind anymore… I’d rather put my energy back into the straightforward things in DeFi: take a small position to earn some interest, hedge along the way, and if things go wrong, just accept it. At least the logic is something I can explain clearly myself.