#Gate广场五月交易分享

How will weak U.S. employment data reinforce dovish stance?
This week’s macroeconomic focus is on the employment market.
On Wednesday, ADP employment figures;
on Thursday, Challenger layoffs and New York Fed inflation expectations;
on Friday, non-farm payroll report and University of Michigan inflation expectations will be released intensively.
Forecasts predict April non-farm job gains of 60k;
if this figure is realized or lower than expected, it will significantly strengthen the market’s view that the Federal Reserve’s policy stance will tilt further dovishly.
The logical chain is clear: slowing employment growth → manageable wage pressure → weakening stickiness of service inflation → the Fed gaining more room to “wait” or “shift.”
It should be noted that the current market pricing already partially reflects dovish expectations, so the marginal deviation of the data is more important than the absolute value.
If the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises or the growth rate of average hourly earnings slows more than expected, the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will provide phased valuation support for crypto assets.
Conversely, if employment data shows resilience beyond expectations, it may trigger a slight adjustment in rate hike expectations after the May non-farm payroll report.