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The US and Iran are now directly clashing in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first firefight in a month.
The US Navy is trying to force the shipping lanes open, while Iran continues to hit merchant ships to maintain the blockade, pushing the situation into a more dangerous new phase.
Both sides are testing the waters: the US doesn’t want to completely shut down the oil artery, and Iran knows that a total blockade would be suicidal.
However, if things escalate after a spark, oil prices will definitely surge in the short term, delivering another blow to the global supply chain.
Neither side is really prepared for full-scale war.
The US doesn’t want to get bogged down, and Iran can’t withstand a long-term drain.
This round of skirmishes feels more like mutual pressure to gain leverage for negotiations.
Oil prices will still oscillate above 100, but $BTC keeps pushing up, which is a bit puzzling.
Right now, being a hodler means just holding on tight; surrender is not an option. $CL