Analyst: If no extreme black swan events occur, the $60k range is expected to become the bottom of this bear market.

BlockBeats News, May 5th, analyst (@Murphychen888) stated that the trend reversal of long-term holder (LTH) net positions usually occurs before Bitcoin prices bottom out, and the easing of supply-side pressure creates conditions for bottom formation.

Since February 10, 2026, LTH net holdings have begun to rebound, increasing by approximately 324k BTC by April 30. During the same period, short-term holder (STH) positions decreased by 184k BTC, with some of these shifting to new LTHs. After excluding this conversion, original LTHs actively increased their holdings by about 140k BTC, becoming an important force driving the growth of LTH holdings.

Compared with historical cycles, during the last bear market, LTH net holdings bottomed out and rebounded on July 23, 2022. If not for the FTX collapse triggering short-term panic selling, the $19,000 to $22,000 range might already have been the bottom zone. Similarly, after LTH positions rebounded in July 2019, excluding the extreme “312” event, the $7,000 to $9,000 range was the bottom zone.

On February 10, 2026, LTH net holdings bottomed out and rebounded. If no extreme black swan events occur afterward, the $62,000 to $65,000 range is expected to be the bottom zone of this bear market, or very close to the bottom.

The increase in LTH net holdings means more STHs choose to hold without selling, while believers continue to accumulate. The result will inevitably push the bottom higher and accelerate the bottom formation process. The shift in supply and demand is the most important core data to watch in a bear market.