Have you noticed that recently, whenever discussing stablecoin supply or ETF data, someone immediately jumps to the conclusion that "funds are coming in, so prices will go up"... I find that a bit amusing. An increase in stablecoins might just be outside liquidity reserves, or it could be the exchange or market maker's turnover, or even just a shell being held without activity. The correlation is strong, but don’t rush to see it as the cause and effect.

ETF is the same; inflows and outflows are obviously important, but it’s more like a "visible water pipe"—not all water flows through there. Not to mention, some regions tighten or loosen taxes and regulations intermittently; many people's deposit and withdrawal expectations change, which first impacts sentiment and pace, not necessarily immediately reflected in on-chain numbers.

Right now, I prefer to watch "how narratives are being relayed by KOLs," rather than obsessing over a single indicator... Anyway, I want to lower the excitement level first, reduce speculation, and wait for signals.