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Honestly, recently some people have been using the stablecoin supply curve to manipulate ETF capital flows, talking as if there's a cause-and-effect relationship... It makes me want to laugh a little. An increase in stablecoins might just mean more off-chain parking positions, or maybe everyone is avoiding volatility first; on the ETF side, it’s more like "channel changes," money coming in doesn’t mean it will immediately go on-chain as fuel. Correlation is the most deceptive thing.
And then there's the testnet points expectation, constantly asking in the group, "Will the mainnet issue tokens?" I’m not sure either, but every time this sentiment gets high, the chain feels more like gambling on probabilities rather than making judgments. Anyway, now I look at the data and first ask: is this wave money coming in, or are people more willing to use stablecoins as an emotional buffer... that’s all for now.