Recently, I saw someone again staring at on-chain large transfers and fluctuations in exchange hot and cold wallets, then starting to speculate "smart money is coming." Honestly, I’d prefer to review the contracts of the yield aggregator first… No matter how beautiful the APY looks, in essence, it’s just you entrusting assets to a series of contracts to do the work: who is borrowing, what is the quality of the collateral, whether they are transferring you to other pools, who holds the key permissions, whether the emergency switch is just a snap decision. Many aggregators themselves aren’t necessarily bad, but with layer after layer of counterparties, when something goes wrong, you can’t tell who’s the one causing the explosion.

I trust data more, and not so much intuition, because intuition often just tries to find explanations for “the limited information seen.” Data at least lets me know exactly who I’ve lent my coins to and what risks I’m betting on. For now, I’d rather earn less than lose sleep over it.