Today, Bitcoin continues to engage in fierce back-and-forth trading around the $80,000 mark. Geopolitical safe-haven buying since the beginning of the year and expectations of favorable policy measures form the core support, while disagreements between bulls and bears behind the scenes keep intensifying.

📊 Market snapshot: Yesterday’s session saw a dramatic tug-of-war. After surging from a low of $78,200 to a new high of $80,749, price pulled back. It is currently consolidating around the $80,000 level, with a 24-hour gain of about 1.66%. Bitcoin breaking above $80,000 is the first time this year since late January. Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has accumulated gains of roughly 20%. Amid these large swings, total liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours reached $523 million, showing clear characteristics of both sides getting hit.

📈 Bullish rationale: Spot ETF has recorded positive inflows for the fifth consecutive week. Last week’s total net inflow was about $154 million, indicating a clear effect of institutional capital propping up the market. Michael Saylor plans to significantly increase BTC holdings, and the “Bitcoin Above on May 5” prediction market contract price once surged to 99.8% YES. On the technical side, the MACD bullish crossover points upward, suggesting the uptrend for the bulls continues.

📉 Bearish risks: MACRO analyst Nic Puckrin bluntly said this rally is “fragile,” mainly because it is driven by falling oil prices rather than by genuine demand. If Brent crude rebounds to above $110, it could deal a severe blow to the crypto market. A CryptoQuant report warns that price is driven by perpetual contract leverage, while spot demand continues to shrink—similar to the fragile structure at the start of the 2022 bear market. Moreover, as price rises, trading volume actually shrinks; the divergence between volume and price suggests that the momentum to chase higher prices is weakening.

⚡ Key support and resistance:

Direction | First tier | Second tier | Strong tier
💪 Support | 79,000–79,500 | 78,200–78,500 | 78,000
🚧 Resistance | 80,500–80,600 | 82,000–82,200 | 83,500

Multiple signals indicate that the market is in a high-volatility trading cycle, and there is significant uncertainty about the near-term direction. Investors are advised to remain cautious. The information above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.$BTC #比特币ETF期权持仓限额增4倍