Recently, I saw someone claim that when the supply of stablecoins suddenly spikes, "off-chain money has come in," and they casually linked ETF net subscriptions to the causal chain as well... I’m just a node runner, and I mainly focus on whether the settlement and custody systems match up. Frankly, establishing correlation is easy; causality is much harder: supply expansion could be due to chain swaps, market-making stockpiles, or even just moving locations, and doesn’t necessarily mean new buying pressure.

Moreover, it’s not surprising that on-chain data tools and tagging systems are criticized as "lagging/misleading," because changing addresses or routing can tell a different story. Anyway, I only see these charts as warning signals; if I really want to draw conclusions, I’d check whether multiple data sources can verify each other. That’s all for now.