I'm now too afraid to pretend to understand the macro picture either, so I just focus on one thing: when interest rates go up, people's mindset really changes. The positions that used to dare to gamble suddenly start to "talk reason," in other words, risk appetite shrinks. The way I handle it is pretty simple: lighten my positions first, be more selective with timing, wait for a cheap gas window, but don't rush to use all my bullets.

My definition of "long-term" isn't that grand either... maybe one to two months. If I can withstand a few market shocks and still sleep well, I consider that long-term. Recently, the debate over privacy coins/mixing coins and their compliance boundaries has been giving me a headache. On one side, it's "privacy is a right," on the other, it's "don't let my exchange account get shut down." Anyway, I keep my risk notes simple: don't fight your emotions, and don't keep positions as large as your bravado. That's all for now.