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Recently, some people have been drawing lines based on stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC volume, saying "Money is coming, so it should go up."
I now prefer to see it as a sentiment thermometer: an increase in supply could also mean repositioning, arbitrage, or market making to replenish inventory; ETF inflows might be rebalancing, not necessarily immediately on-chain.
Correlation, to be honest, looks pleasing but if taken as causation, it’s easy to get caught off guard.
I still stick to my old habits: wait for pullbacks, analyze structure, place orders in batches, and treat the market liquidity as background noise.
By the way, I want to complain about the modularization and DA layer this wave—developers are talking excitedly, but ordinary users seem like they’re listening to a foreign language…
Anyway, I’ll just look at the charts first, not rushing to follow the narrative.