Recently, I saw everyone drawing lines on the curve of stablecoin supply against ETF net inflows, then jumping to the conclusion "money is coming in = it's about to take off." I'm a bit worried about this kind of thinking... correlation does not equal causation. An increase in stablecoins might be due to OTC waiting for opportunities, or it could just be the turnover demand in market making/lending, or even moving assets between chains. Looking at on-chain flow directions and net inflows into exchanges is more reliable. The same applies to ETFs; inflows don't mean immediate spot purchases, and the rhythm and hedging structures can throw off intuition. By the way, the testnet points expectations have been heating up again recently. People are guessing wildly about "whether the mainnet will issue tokens," but I still prefer to look at verifiable metrics: new addresses, activity, and whether funds are staying put. Anyway, don’t get carried away by a single line chart—taking it slow is fine.

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