CME Federal Reserve Watch shows a 95.2% probability of holding interest rates steady in June. According to CME Federal Reserve Watch data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.8%. In July, the probability of maintaining rates is 92.2%, with the chance of a 25 basis point cut rising to 7.7%. By September, the likelihood of unchanged rates drops to 86.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut increases to 13.2%.