I used to be like this too: when spot pumps in one wave, I want to run; when futures pull back in one wave, I want to add; in the end, either I sell too early or I get blown up. Position management—put it plainly—is one line of human language: first assume you’ll make a judgment mistake, and make sure that even if you do, that mistake won’t knock you out of the game. For spot, don’t hold quantities that make you panic at every dip. For contracts, it’s simpler: don’t use leverage that only lets you live if you can be “instantly correct.” Leave enough room for volatility—especially when implied volatility rises; the market has zero patience for those who think they can argue with it.

In the past two days, around that mainstream chain upgrade/maintenance and downtime, everyone in the group has been speculating whether the project will migrate. I, for my part, don’t bet on the news—first I cut my position by half, keep some “bullets” ready, and then wait for things to settle. If you’re a lone wolf, be a lone wolf: when you’re wrong, admit it—don’t stubbornly hold on. We’ll chat again next time.