Yesterday, I came across a blockchain game that was again touting "the pool is getting bigger," my first reaction wasn't excitement, but PTSD... Basically, it's just two things: production is too strong + consumption is too weak. Everyone claims a bunch of tokens daily, selling pressure is leaking nonstop, and the pool relies on new money coming in to support it. As inflation rises, the returns seem decent but are actually accelerating the draining. What's even worse is that once the price starts to slide, players are left with only one action: "sell quickly," and the cycle collapses directly.

Then there are people watching large transfers on the chain, and abnormal movements of hot and cold wallets on exchanges, thinking it's "smart money." I just laugh when I see this now: maybe it's just the project team replenishing liquidity or market-making repositioning, or big players preparing to dump before a crash—don't read too much into it as divine prophecy. I used to be led by these signals before, but when the execution failed, I couldn't sell and got squeezed... Anyway, with blockchain games, first see if the consumption can truly absorb the output, otherwise, no matter how lively it looks, it's just like fireworks.