I was watching gold movements and an interesting dynamic is developing. If we look at gold price forecasts for the coming months, almost all financial institutions agree on a range between $2,700 and $2,800 by the end of 2025. But what strikes me is how the situation has evolved since we entered 2026.

The fascinating thing is that gold has started setting new all-time highs not only in dollars but in virtually all global currencies. This happened at the beginning of 2024 and represents a serious confirmation of the bullish market. If you look at the 50-year chart, you see two secular bullish reversal patterns: the first in the '80s-'90s with a very long descending wedge, and the second between 2013 and 2023 with a cup and handle formation that was powerful. This tells us we are at the beginning of a trend that could last for years.

Now, what really drives the price of gold? It’s not what you think. It’s not supply/demand or economic cycles. It’s expected inflation. The TIP ETF, which reflects inflation expectations, is strongly correlated with gold. And here’s where it gets interesting: M2 and the consumer price index continue to grow steadily. This creates an environment where gold price forecasts tend upward.

Goldman Sachs says $2,700 at the start of 2025, Bloomberg talks about a range between $1,709 and $2,727, UBS and BofA align around $2,700–$2,750. But the most interesting forecast is one that sees gold at $3,100 in 2025 and then around $3,900 in 2026. This reflects a more aggressive view based on technical and fundamental indicators.

What does the 20-year chart tell me? A bullish gold market tends to start slowly and accelerate toward the end. The last major cycle had three distinct phases. Considering the pattern completed between 2013 and 2023, we can expect a multi-phase, complex trend. It’s not a vertical explosion; it’s a gradual but persistent rise.

Currency markets are supportive: EURUSD looks constructive, and Treasury bonds seem bullish on their secular timeframes. These are leading indicators that matter. Also, futures positioning is interesting: net short positions of commercial traders remain high, which effectively means prices can’t be suppressed too much. There’s room to go higher.

My thesis is that the bullish gold market is still in its early, “weak” phase. The real acceleration will come later in the decade. By 2030, targets point to a potential peak around $5,000. It’s psychologically significant because it’s a round number, but not extraordinary. It could happen under normal market conditions.

What does all this mean for those watching gold price forecasts in the coming months? It means we’ll probably see gradual growth, not spectacular but steady. There will be pullbacks and periods of weakness—that’s normal. But the overall direction seems clear: upward. The key is to monitor macroeconomic indicators, expected inflation, and currency market behavior.

A final detail: if gold drops and stays below $1,770, the entire bullish thesis would be invalidated. But honestly, the probability is very low given what we see in the charts. Gold has already done its consolidation work. Now it’s time to rise, step by step.