The Iran-U.S. conflict is currently stuck in a "neither war nor peace" situation characterized by military confrontation and diplomatic deadlock coexistence. Although both sides maintain a fragile ceasefire, the risk of military friction in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply increased, and diplomatic efforts surrounding Iran's 14-point peace plan have failed to make breakthrough progress. The situation is at a highly tense critical point.

🚨 Latest developments: Strait confrontation and "ultimatum"

· Iran military warning: On May 4, 2026, the Iranian Navy launched cruise missiles, rockets, and drones to warning shots at U.S. warships attempting to enter the strait. Iran claimed to have hit the U.S. vessel unilaterally, but the U.S. officially denied it. The Revolutionary Guard then announced new control measures over the strait, warning that any interference would be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
· U.S. "diplomatic guidance" operation: On the same day, Trump announced the launch of a military guidance operation called “Project Freedom,” deploying 15,000 troops and over 100 aircraft to forcibly escort commercial ships through the strait. The first two U.S.-flagged commercial ships have already passed under escort.
· Deadly "deadline": Iran’s 14-point plan demands the U.S. end the war and lift the blockade within one month. The Revolutionary Guard strongly stated that Trump must choose between “unachievable military action” or “a bad deal.”

🤝 Core of the game: Unresolvable demands

Even in such a tense atmosphere, both sides continue to engage diplomatically from a distance, with core disagreements still present and firm:

· Iran’s demands: Immediately end the war, with nuclear issues deferred. Specific conditions include: U.S. military withdrawal from surrounding areas, lifting maritime blockade, paying war reparations, unfreezing assets, and establishing a new strait management mechanism.
· U.S. red line: Insist that nuclear issues remain central to negotiations. Trump previously stated clearly that he believes Iran has not paid enough price, and is therefore “dissatisfied” with the plan.

🌍 Other key variables

· Israel’s role: To prevent a U.S.-Iran bilateral agreement, Israel has ordered senior officials to remain “mute” and has stepped up military preparations.
· Domestic issues in the U.S.: The Trump administration faces the pressure of the 60-day legal deadline set by the War Powers Act. Meanwhile, over 60% (63%) of Americans believe that taking military action against Iran is a wrong decision.
· Global economic losses: About 10 million barrels of oil per day (10% of global supply) are blocked, causing international oil prices to surge. The IMF warns that if the deadlock continues for several months, global economic growth in 2026 could shrink to 2%.

🔮 Future directions: Three possibilities

Analysts mainly predict three possible future scenarios:

1. Diplomatic breakthrough: Israel maintains military pressure, and although rare, both sides ultimately reach a historic agreement to end the war (less likely).
2. Resumption of hostilities: Breakdown of guidance efforts or negotiations leads to large-scale conflict, triggering a global economic recession.
3. “Frozen conflict”: Maintaining the current “neither war nor peace” attrition, with the global energy market under continued immense pressure (most likely scenario at present).

💎 Summary

War is not here yet, but peace is still far away. The current deadlock is a huge test for both sides. Iran is testing U.S. strategic patience with its geographic leverage, while the Trump administration is weighing between military risks, domestic legal, and political pressures. The next steps in the situation will be a critical window in the coming weeks. #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧