Amid U.S.-Iran tensions, the New York stock market shows mixed gains and losses, sensitive to rising oil prices

New York’s stock market on the 4th (local time) opened with mixed gains and losses as markets watched the escalation of military tensions between the United States and Iran. With conditions in the Middle East again unstable, investors were not actively positioning for risk assets; instead, they tried to gauge how geopolitical conflicts would affect oil prices and corporate performance.

At 9:59 a.m. that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the New York Stock Exchange was down 130.05 points (0.38%) from the previous trading day, at 49,341.10. The S&P 500 index fell 0.53 points (0.01%) to 7,229.59; the Nasdaq Composite rose 11.84 points (0.05%) to 25,126.29. The Dow, driven mainly by large blue-chip stocks, saw a relatively larger decline, while the Nasdaq—heavily weighted toward technology stocks—edged higher, creating divergence in market performance.

The backdrop that directly shook investor sentiment was the possibility of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. After U.S. President Donald Trump announced the launch of the so-called “Freedom Plan” to rescue isolated ships, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that U.S. warships were hit by missiles during transit through the Strait of Hormuz and then returned. However, the U.S. Central Command countered that no vessels were struck, explaining that two merchant ships flying the U.S. flag had safely passed through the strait. On the same day, the United Arab Emirates announced that a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) was attacked by two Iranian drones, and issued a warning to residents, advising them to evacuate in preparation for potential missile threats. The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for global crude-oil seaborne transportation; if tensions there escalate, energy prices and logistics costs could rise in tandem, and financial markets are sensitive to such developments.

Cautionary voices also appeared in the market, with some saying that stock prices had not yet fully reflected such long-term risks. Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, cited the burden brought by high oil prices and expected that more adverse factors could emerge in the future, with their impact showing up in coming corporate earnings. In fact, international oil prices were trending upward. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for the near-month contract with delivery in June 2026 rose 0.46% from the previous trading day to $102.41 per barrel. Higher oil prices could be a positive for energy companies, but they also bring cost pressure for manufacturing, transportation, and overall consumption, and create pressure on prices and profit margins.

In individual stocks, price movements diverged sharply due to different company-specific news. By sector, non-essential consumer goods and technology stocks were relatively strong, while materials and telecommunications stocks lagged. eBay rose 4.56% after news that GameStop had made a takeover offer of up to $55.5 billion. By contrast, Norwegian Cruise Line’s shares fell 8.98% after it significantly lowered its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast for this fiscal year from $2.38 previously to $1.45–$1.79. Photonics equipment manufacturers Lumentum and Coherent rose 2.27% and 1.22%, respectively, after Rothschild’s Redburn issued buy ratings for these two companies and began analysis. Market commentary suggested that demand for optical components needed for artificial intelligence data center networks could become a growth driver for these firms. European stock markets also generally weakened. The EURO STOXX 50 index fell 1.16% to 5,813.30; France’s CAC 40 index and Germany’s DAX index fell 0.88% and 0.29%, respectively. The UK stock market was closed for a bank holiday. This pattern may persist as investors assess whether Middle East tensions will actually lead to supply disruptions, and to what extent the rise in oil prices will be reflected in future prices and corporate performance.