As of May 5, 2026, the probability of the United States conducting limited military strikes (airstrikes on key facilities) against Iran is about 60%, with the chances of a full invasion/long-term war below 20%.

1. High probability: Limited airstrikes (60%)

1. Immediate triggers (recent)

- Graham and other hawks exert pressure: publicly state Iran has defaulted, demanding "large-scale, high-intensity, short-term" military retaliation.
- Trump’s statement leaves the door open: on May 2, he said "airstrikes could be restarted," while reviewing Iran negotiation plans, clearly indicating an intent to provoke talks.
- Fragile ceasefire: after the April ceasefire, mutual accusations; the oil tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz (May 4) intensifies tensions.

2. U.S. motives for military action

- Domestic politics: Trump consolidates a tough stance, appealing to Republican hawks and the military-industrial complex.
- Strategic goals: weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities, missile/drones forces, and ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Legal space: claims "ceasefire ends hostilities," avoiding restrictions of the War Powers Act, allowing quick resumption of actions.

3. Military feasibility

- Force deployment in place: dual aircraft carriers in the Middle East, B-2 bombers, F-35 squadrons, capable of high-intensity strikes within 5 days.
- Clear targets: nuclear facilities, air defense systems, command centers, missile sites; "surgical" strikes can be executed quickly.

2. Scenario probability overview (2026.5.5)

- Limited airstrikes (1–3 days, nuclear/air defense/command targets): 60% (most likely)
- Small-scale targeted strikes (drones/missiles, single facility): 30% (less likely)
- Status quo/diplomatic negotiations: 10% (low)
- Full invasion/long-term war: <20% (very low)

3. Key signals to watch (next 1–2 weeks)

1. Whether Trump officially recognizes Iran’s default and publicly authorizes military options.
2. Whether the U.S. military increases bombers/carriers or evacuates non-essential personnel from the Middle East (pre-war signs).
3. Whether Iran responds strongly (such as blocking the Strait, attacking U.S. bases).

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