Turkey, inflation rate surpasses 32.4%... inflationary pressures rise again

Turkey’s consumer price inflation rate rose again in April 2026, as inflationary pressures, which once seemed to be stabilizing, reemerged.

According to data released by the Central Bank of Turkey on the 4th (local time), the consumer price inflation rate in April was 32.4% year-on-year. This is an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 30.9% in March. From a monthly trend perspective, this indicates that the price increase momentum has intensified again. Such a significant rebound in the inflation rate is the first in about two years since May 2024. At that time, Turkey’s inflation rate soared to 75.5%, imposing a huge burden on people’s livelihoods and business operating costs.

Turkey faced a severe inflation problem in October 2022, with the consumer price inflation rate reaching as high as 85.5%. Since then, authorities have implemented strong monetary tightening policies aimed at curbing demand and lowering inflation expectations (i.e., the expectation that prices will continue to rise in the future). As a result, last year’s inflation rate fell back to just over 30%, even raising hopes of achieving single-digit inflation over the long term. Price stability is crucial for restoring household purchasing power and facilitating businesses in setting prices and planning investments.

However, recently, external variables have once again shaken the price levels. Particularly, the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to rising international oil prices, and its impact is affecting Turkey’s economy, which is highly dependent on energy imports. The increase in crude oil prices has driven up fuel costs, electricity bills, and logistics expenses, which could further transmit to food and industrial product prices. The typical pathways through which geopolitical conflicts stimulate inflation are also becoming evident in Turkey.

In this context, the monetary policy space of the Central Bank of Turkey is also narrowing. The bank had previously considered gradually lowering the current benchmark interest rate of 37.0%, but in the latest monetary policy committee meeting, it decided to keep the rate unchanged. The reason given was geopolitical uncertainty caused by Middle Eastern conflicts and fluctuations in energy prices. While lowering the benchmark rate could ease economic pressure, during periods of renewed price volatility, it might instead stimulate inflation. This trend indicates that, depending on the future stability of international oil prices and Middle Eastern situations, Turkey’s inflation and interest rate paths could again change.