Recently, someone asked me again, "Should whales buy or not?" Honestly, my first reaction to large transfers isn't excitement anymore; it's to pause for two seconds and think: Are they building a position, hedging, arbitraging, or just moving money somewhere else... Looking on the blockchain, it seems like the same activity, but the motives behind it could be completely different scenarios. If you rush in following, it might turn out that they are using spot as the base and then pushing with futures, ultimately shaking you off first.

I'm also not sure how to see through it at a glance; I can only use a clumsy method: watch more of the actions before and after, see if there's continuous adding, or if they are opening opposite positions at the same time. Especially recently, with some regions increasing taxes, tightening regulations, then loosening again, deposit and withdrawal expectations have changed. Large traders prefer more stable strategies like "hedging + transferring," which look lively on the surface but might actually be about reducing risk. Anyway, I now prefer to slow down; if I can't confirm, I just pretend I didn't see it. Earning a little less is okay.