Thoughts on public blockchains in 2026:

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Abstract generation in progress

Thoughts on public chains in 2026:

  1. The strategy of “controlling inflation + high interest rate savings + DeFi trifecta + founder meme + our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC selling to liquid funds” is no longer viable.

  2. This is not only a problem Monad and MegaETH need to face, but also Rise, Fogo, and even N1. Old public chains, it depends; Sei and Polygon still seem to be struggling, most have already given up.

  3. The loyalty of projects incubated on day 1 of public chains remains questionable, because among the few founders in the industry, options include BNB Chain, Solana, and even Base. Most new deployments target the public chain foundation’s treasury. Once backed by endorsements and after attracting the first wave of community users, founders are motivated: 1) to build their own app chains to support valuation; 2) to switch to other chains and compete.

  4. As a result, some founders no longer call themselves xx ecosystems, but say xx chain is our “GTM Partner.”

  5. So, ecosystem projects are too weak to support, or too strong and end up backstabbing their benefactors like Lü Bu.

  6. The original free-range, neutral public chain development model has basically ended, and the valuation model based on MEV income needs revision (here @LeePima). Today’s public chains are more about carrying a controllable system rather than potential, focusing on fintech within a controllable economic system.

  7. Future public chains will be a centralized power structure, with top-down dev shops and CVCs. The main role of the treasury will be M&A, with aggressive vertical integration rather than ecosystem cultivation. In other words, there will no longer be kingmakers like Solana (cc. @mablejiang).

  8. In this sense, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are heading in the same direction, just with different resource advantages and regional differences.

  9. The final question is: how should we model FDV at this point to speculate accordingly? And since the skill set is entirely geared toward token-selling, pump-and-dump economic models, growth managers, operations, and other roles—perhaps the old playbook won’t work on the new ship.

MON0.98%
MEGA-0.92%
SEI0.13%
BNB0.51%
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