There were some clueless newcomers just now challenging my short-selling logic.

As an industry veteran,
it's necessary to give newcomers a basic explanation,
about how macroeconomics affects cycles and risk assets.
1. The rising price of crude oil directly increases the production costs of companies, and a decline in profits is inevitable. This will directly impact the Nasdaq's trend. The two move inversely, negatively correlated. If crude oil remains high, it could trigger a global economic collapse. I’m bullish to around 150 and sideways.
2. The appreciation of the Japanese Yen has a huge impact on liquidity in U.S. stock assets. If Japan raises interest rates, it will lead to liquidity withdrawal from the market, reducing debt.
(Actually, the recent rise in U.S. stocks is driven by borrowing Yen at no cost, selling for USD, then buying U.S. stocks—this is the current profit opportunity.)
Historically, every time Japan raises interest rates, there has been a decline of over 20%.
3. BTC, as a high-risk, positively correlated tech stock within the U.S. stock market (most institutional holdings), will be directly affected by FUD if the U.S. stocks weaken.
4. Potential risk: Every change of the Federal Reserve Chair affects global monetary policy. Uncertainty can have a huge impact on the market. Historically, each change in the Fed Chair has caused about a 50% drop (mainly due to capital flight and risk aversion).
5. The current U.S. Treasury yield is as high as 5%. If it remains high, funds will prefer U.S. bonds (government-backed bonds with no default risk), earning interest passively.
In summary:
Logic 1: Rising oil — higher costs — lower corporate profits — falling stocks.
Logic 2: Japan raises interest rates — liquidity tightens — risk assets retreat — market declines.
Logic 3: U.S. bond yields rise — funds seek safe assets — indirectly drain liquidity from the market.
This explains why the market is currently rising:
Liquidity is too tight, a small amount of money can push up thousands of BTC!
Just check the net inflow of spot markets—you’ll see that less than 1 billion in funds has entered the market.
The current market is in a state of disagreement, with internal fighting; the bottom line is already clear—who has the thicker skin will win!
Newbies, do you understand?
#V镰宏观分析 #BTC Market Analysis $btc $UKOUSD $USDJPY $NAS100