Recently, I've seen people use "the stablecoin supply has increased + ETF net inflow" as evidence that "off-chain funds are coming, and the market is about to take off," but honestly, that seems a bit too smooth... An increase in stablecoins might just be for exchange reserves, market making, or even project team salaries; ETF activity could also be just existing funds switching channels, not necessarily new money coming in. The correlation looks there, but don't rush to jump to conclusions about causality.

Plus, with the current criticism of the staking/sharing security model as "copycat," I can actually understand: as yields stack higher and higher, on-chain data looks lively, but once sentiment shifts, the longer the queue, the more frantic the withdrawals.

Next time, I might stop relying on a single indicator and instead focus on actual on-chain turnover and exchange net flows for a few days before deciding whether to jump in... How do you usually determine if "new money" has really arrived?