Taking advantage of the internal and external difficulties in the United States, Lee Jae-myung is planning a major move. If successful, it could change the geopolitical landscape of East Asia.

Since Yoon Suk-yeol's "self-coup" failed and Lee Jae-myung took over the government, South Korea's performance has been much more normal than in previous years. This normalcy is reflected in their not forgetting history, implementing a "pro-Japan diplomacy"; nor flying drones recklessly northward, provoking the peninsula situation.
But Lee Jae-myung has one policy inherited from Yoon Suk-yeol's era, and he is even expanding on it. He wants to make South Korea the world's fourth-largest defense power. Not only that, but Lee is also planning to reclaim wartime command from the United States. These two actions can be seen as one; if Lee Jae-myung truly accomplishes them during his term, it could have a very significant impact on the entire East Asian geopolitical pattern.
Can Lee Jae-myung persuade Trump?
Recently, Lee Jae-myung hosted a national security meeting at Cheong Wa Dae and said something meaningful. He stated that many people within South Korea have uneasy feelings about military security, which is very abnormal. The country needs to rely on itself for protection; they can't worry that without foreign troops, South Korea cannot defend itself. South Korea's Minister of Defense, Ahn Gyu-beom, immediately responded: some forces are encouraging and inciting behind the scenes, but most citizens do not think this way. Lee Jae-myung nodded and once again emphasized the need to explain these objective facts to the public.
This kind of dialogue has never happened in South Korean history, let alone been reported by mainstream media. It points to a bold vision of a left-wing South Korean government: to take back the command of the South Korean military from the United States. Ironically, as a sovereign nation, the command of the South Korean military is actually not in the hands of the government, because during Yoon Suk-yeol's presidency, he often said: Without the United States, there is no South Korea; Washington's favor is never fully repaid. But after South Korea gradually democratized in the late 1980s, Roh Tae-woo was the first to propose reclaiming the command.
Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in both attempted to regain wartime command
In 1994, Kim Young-sam, during his presidency, negotiated multiple times to regain the South Korean military's routine command. After entering the 21st century, Roh Moo-hyun continued efforts to recover wartime command. In 2007, South Korea and the U.S. reached an agreement, and in April 2012, the transfer was completed, along with the disbanding of the ROK-U.S. Combined Command. But with Obama’s "Rebalance to Asia" strategy during his second term and the outbreak of North Korea nuclear issues, the transfer was delayed, turning into a "conditional transfer." The U.S. conditions included that the South Korean military could independently lead operations, handle North Korea alone, and that the peninsula situation had stabilized.
These conditions seem achievable, but they are subjective judgments. If the U.S. insists they haven't been met, South Korea has no way to argue. During Obama's presidency, not only did the U.S. maintain its presence on the peninsula, but it also caused the "THAAD incident," aiming to keep an eye on China’s doorstep. During Moon Jae-in's term, facing the easily swayed Trump, through mediating North Korea-U.S. dialogue, the first phase of "independent operational control" capability assessment was completed. Unfortunately, due to the sudden pandemic and the short five-year term, Moon Jae-in couldn't complete the process. Now, it's Lee Jae-myung's turn. He has already set a plan to reclaim it before 2030.
Yoon Suk-yeol is bad at everything, but he managed to secure a huge arms deal for South Korea
According to sources from Cheong Wa Dae, taking advantage of the internal and external difficulties in the U.S., Lee Jae-myung has launched secret diplomacy with Washington. South Korea's bargaining chips include promising to increase military spending, implementing an investment agreement with the U.S., and persuading Trump, the "Commander-in-Chief," that since he is so busy in the Middle East, they can let South Korea act as a "regional proxy" in East Asia. Currently, the communication between the two sides has just begun, and the final outcome is unpredictable. But Lee Jae-myung is already preparing—such as the inevitable surge in military expenditure after reclaiming command, which can be expanded through increased foreign arms exports.
During Yoon Suk-yeol's government, although many things were mishandled, they seized the opportunity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to reach South Korea's largest-ever arms deal in history. 15B2 tanks, 15B9 howitzers, 48 FA-50 fighters, and other equipment, totaling nearly $15 billion, brought South Korea huge profits. After taking office, Lee Jae-myung also led a delegation to the UAE and secured a new arms deal worth $15 billion. Lee said that South Korea's military industry mainly offers equipment that is more cost-effective and faster to deliver than American-made gear. This statement is quite reasonable.
Can Lee Jae-myung become the person to change the East Asian situation?
Returning to the national security meeting at Cheong Wa Dae, Lee Jae-myung first proposed that South Korea is the fifth-largest military power in the world, with the top four being the U.S., Russia, China, and India. All signs indicate that Lee truly regards reclaiming military command and achieving strategic autonomy as a priority.
Suppose Lee Jae-myung really accomplishes this during his term—does that mean the U.S. will withdraw from South Korea, the peninsula situation will stabilize, and China will have one more ally to win over?
Each of these unresolved questions, once settled, could influence the future of East Asian geopolitics. Whether the U.S. will loosen its stance depends on how Lee Jae-myung persuades them. At least for now, his influence in Washington still doesn't match that of Moon Jae-in, let alone the military friend that Trump has been eager to cultivate.
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