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Bitcoin has reached $80k! Why is it rising, and will it continue to go up? How to operate with ZEC now, let's take a quick look.
1. First, let's talk about why BTC is rising, look at the chart. Is MicroStrategy crazy? Usually, they buy only a few hundred million dollars a week, but in the past month, they’ve been buying 1 billion or even 2.5 billion dollars every week! What does this mean?
2. Currently, all Bitcoin ETFs hold only about 80k dollars, while MicroStrategy bought 5 billion in a month. Their monthly increase accounts for about 10% of all institutional holdings combined over three years. With such large funds continuously buying, the price obviously can't fall. So, will they keep buying?
3. MicroStrategy’s current BTC purchases are entirely funded by their STRC financing product, which has a dividend yield of 11.7%. They use ultra-high dividends to finance, borrowing to lend, betting that Bitcoin can keep rising indefinitely—extremely aggressive. If later they can’t pay the high dividends or continue financing, it would be bad...
4. MicroStrategy’s default, Bitcoin’s sharp drop. Of course, MicroStrategy can also sell Bitcoin to maintain cash flow, but selling might lead to worse outcomes. So, the recent surge in their popular financial products has indeed pushed up the coin price, making it hard to fall. But big problems could arise later, and that’s when Bitcoin’s bottom might appear.
5. In the short term, the resistance at $BTC is around $80k, which is near the previous $79.5k. But MicroStrategy is going all-in, so the price might reach the next resistance around $83k. I am long-term low-leverage bearish, with 2x positions that won’t be liquidated. No product only goes up; it’s already risen for 40 days straight. Chasing longs and catching the dip is impossible. The only remaining strategy is to carefully set up short positions at high points.
6. As for ZEC, yesterday we shorted at 410. It had a slight breakout, but now $ZEC has fallen back to 410. I decided to close most of the position at the original price, leaving a small part to re-enter near the next resistance at 460, playing it safe with one position.
7. Our crude oil $CL short position has been very good; it’s fallen about 10% recently, down to 98, making good profits. When it rebounds, say around 106 or 110, I think it’s a good opportunity to add more, continuously arbitraging, steady and cautious, opening positions daily.