Mid-East News Sparks Market Surge! $BTC Jumping Up and Down 2000 Points, How Should Ordinary People Operate? 💥

Yang Guang's Precise Real-Time BTC Strategy

📌 First, the core conclusion: A trend-based crash and plunge will not occur
The current wide-range oscillation is a shakeout during the rise past the 80k level, not a trend reversal; as long as the core upward driving force does not disappear, there is still momentum for a push higher after the shakeout. But if a key negative trigger occurs, there will be a phased deep correction, not a long-term bear market-style crash.
🔑 The core engine of this round of rally — policy favorable expectations — has not disappeared
The "American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA)" has been finalized, with a full House vote scheduled before May 15. The core clause of the bill — "purchase of 1 million BTC within 5 years, and including seized BTC into the national strategic reserve" — remains intact. The White House has also clarified that it will release supplementary details on Bitcoin strategic reserves within the next 10 days.
Before the bill is implemented, the market will continue to hype the expectation of "national-level long-term rigid buying," and Wall Street institutions will not massively dump at this point. This is the underlying support logic for BTC prices; as long as this expectation is not shattered, there will be no indiscriminate crash.
⚠️ Ongoing Middle East Geopolitical Spillover, Medium-Long Term Price Support Remains
The conflict between Iran and the UAE has shifted the Middle East situation from "standoff" to "full spillover," with the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz continuously escalating, and Brent crude oil surpassing $126 per barrel, hitting a 4-year high.
On one hand, geopolitical turmoil boosts global risk aversion sentiment, with more offshore funds viewing BTC as a borderless safe-haven asset, and safe-haven buying continues; on the other hand, the surge in oil prices exacerbates U.S. imported inflation, reinforcing the core narrative of "fiat currency purchasing power dilution," and BTC's anti-inflation properties are continuously priced in by the market. This is a medium- to long-term price support.
📊 Market Trend Forecast
Short-term (1-3 trading days): Most likely to maintain wide-range oscillation between 78,800 and 80,600, with geopolitical news dominating daily fluctuations of thousands of points, no one-sided surge or plunge, mainly a shakeout;
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): As long as the ARMA bill progresses smoothly and the Middle East situation does not see substantial easing, after the shakeout ends, BTC is likely to break through the previous high of 80,600, with the first upside target at 81,000-81,200. After breaking through, the medium-term target is 82,000-85,000.
🎯 Precise Trading Ideas
Entry timing: Price retraces to the 79,200-79,400 range
Optimal entry point: Around 79,300
Stop-loss setting: Strictly below 78,900
Tiered Take Profit:
First target: 80,200-80,400
Second target: 80,800-81,200
🚀 The market never lacks opportunities; what’s missing is the ability to accurately hit the turning points with rhythm and risk control. $BTC ‌#美国寻求战略比特币储备