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Recently, I saw a bunch of people talking about options again.
To put it simply, the buyer is betting on "possibility," and the seller is betting on "time."
Time value is pretty opportunistic; if you do nothing, it gradually flows from the buyer’s pocket to the seller’s.
If you want to win, you have to bet on the right direction and the right speed, or even if you see the big trend correctly, you can still get worn out.
(Every time I watch theta move, it’s like watching the delivery guy take my food away.)
On the other hand, sellers aren’t exactly noble either; they’re collecting money for “you probably won’t get it in time,”
but if there’s a collective nervousness before a chain upgrade or hard fork, guessing whether to migrate or not, and to where,
when volatility kicks in, the seller has to rely on margin to hold firm.
If they can’t, they blow up on the spot.
Anyway, I prefer to stand on the sidelines now:
Buyers shouldn’t treat time as air, and sellers shouldn’t treat black swans as just legends.