BTC short-term rally of 0.21%: Macroeconomic risk appetite recovery and geopolitical safe-haven demand resonate to drive prices to new highs

Between 14:00 and 15:00 (UTC) on May 4, 2026, Bitcoin experienced a short-term surge of 0.21%, with the price range between 78,494.2 and 78,979.3 USDT, an amplitude of 0.62%. The price temporarily broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high since January 31, 2026. Trading volume during this period increased by 18% compared to the previous period, on-chain activity and institutional capital inflows rose in tandem, and market attention significantly intensified.

The core driver of this movement is a notable rebound in macro risk appetite. U.S. Q1 GDP rebounded to 2%, AI infrastructure investment surged by 10.4%, consumer spending growth reached 1.6%, all surpassing market expectations; simultaneously, Asian stock markets and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hit record highs, with the Korean Composite Index soaring 5.1%, U.S. tech stocks generally rising, and the overall strength in risk assets driving a rebound in cryptocurrencies like BTC.

Additionally, geopolitical risk aversion and on-chain capital behavior resonated. Iran and the U.S. engaged in military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting risk sentiment and prompting some funds to view gold and BTC as “digital gold” for allocation; after the yen depreciated sharply, the Japanese government intervened in the market, increasing volatility in the global foreign exchange markets, with some funds flowing into BTC and other non-sovereign assets to hedge fiat currency risk. On-chain data shows an increase in large transfers (single transfer ≥1,000 BTC) compared to the previous period, CME Bitcoin futures holdings experienced net inflows, spot market trading volume expanded by 18%, and perpetual contract funding rates remained positive, indicating bullish sentiment that is strong but not yet overheated.

Regarding risk warnings, caution is needed as geopolitical conflicts may cause short-term fluctuations in risk aversion, rising futures open interest could pose liquidation risks, and price corrections might trigger chain reactions. An increase in net inflows of BTC into exchanges, coupled with large sell-offs later, could impact prices. Investors should pay attention to further developments in macro and geopolitical events, as well as ongoing changes in on-chain capital flows.