$BTC Bitcoin Evening Analysis

✅Shorting: You can try a small position around 79,400-79,600, with a stop loss above 79,800. The initial target is 79,000-78,800, and if broken, then look at 78,500.
✅Long: Don't rush to enter at the current position. Either wait for a pullback to 78,800-79,000 without breaking below before trying a small position, or wait for a volume breakout above 79,600 to stand firm before chasing. Stop losses should be well placed, avoid holding a single position.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is still steadily above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (around 78,500), with the upper band still rising, indicating the overall bullish foundation remains intact.
The key is this middle band: as long as it is not effectively broken downward, the overall trend remains bullish; if it is truly broken through, then be cautious of a pullback to support around 77,500.
On the 1-hour chart, after dropping from the high of 80,590, the price retraced near the middle band (79,325), indicating a stage of “high-level pullback testing the middle band support.”
The critical point here: the middle band at 79,300 is a dividing line. If it holds, there is still a chance to push towards 80,000-80,500; if it fails, the price will drop toward the lower band at 78,100-78,300.
The 15-minute Bollinger Bands show a typical bearish channel (upper band steadily descending). Currently, the price has risen from the lower band (78,128) to touch near the upper band (79,445), representing a rebound after an oversold condition.
The current issue is: the price just touched the upper band, RSI has surged to 71.8, and the J value of KDJ has hit 95, indicating overbought conditions with double pressure from the upper band. The probability of a short-term correction is very high.
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