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Recently, I looked at a few more blockchain game pools, and honestly, it's just about the "token issuance speed" outpacing the "actual consumption." When inflation kicks in, the output is like tap water, but demand can't keep up, and the liquidity in the pool gets drained little by little. A couple of days ago, I saw someone change the rewards to be released in installments, but everyone was even more eager to rush to the secondary market first, and they ended up stepping on the gas even faster... It's quite frustrating.
I personally pay attention to a small detail: for example, a certain contract 0x7c…9b distributes rewards in bulk at fixed times every day, and the same batch of addresses transfers the tokens to the exchange hot wallet within ten minutes. The on-chain traces are very tidy, basically a "production = selling pressure" echo chamber. The pool looks deep, but it's actually just emotional support; once that emotion loosens, the truth is revealed.
Additionally, recently, on-chain data tools and tagging systems have been criticized for lagging or misleading. I also have some feelings: once a tag is applied as "smart money," many people stop paying attention to the context. But blockchain games are more like a running account—where the money comes from and where it goes is more important than "who is buying." Anyway, I don't predict, I just record. That's all for now.