Lately, there has been more and more talk about where the gold market is headed. There are plenty of forecasts, many opinions, but few real analyses based on data. I always look at it more systematically.

A few years ago, I published a forecast that the gold price in 2030 could reach 5000 USD. Back then, many criticized me, but now I can see that the direction is right. Gold hit new all-time highs in practically every major global currency at the start of 2024. That was a turning point.

What convinces me? First, the 50-year charts. The completion of the cup and handle formation from 2013–2023 is a classic signal of a new bull market. History shows that such formations precede multi-year uptrends. The second point is the dynamics of money. M2 and CPI inflation are rising steadily, and that always supports gold.

But the most important factor? Inflation expectations. My analysis showed that this is the main driver of the gold price, not supply-and-demand dynamics or recession fears. When inflation expectations rise, gold rises. Period.

For now, I’m forecasting about 3100 USD by the end of 2025, and then about 3800–3900 USD in 2026. Most financial institutions estimate 2700–2800 USD for the end of 2025, but I believe they’re underestimating the strength of the trend. My gold price target for 2030 is about 5000 USD under normal market conditions.

What could change this? If gold drops and stays below 1770 USD, the bullish scenario would lose its validity. Unlikely, but possible. On the other hand, if inflation gets out of control, the gold price in 2030 could be significantly higher—up to even 10000 USD.

There’s also the matter of silver. Silver has traditionally been accelerating in the later stages of a gold bull market. The gold-to-silver price ratio suggests that silver has the potential to reach 50 USD per ounce in the coming years.

What makes me happy? Long-term charts of government bonds and the eurodollar look bullish. This creates a favorable environment for gold. Positioning in futures markets shows extended short positions by commercial entities, which limits upside potential, but still allows for a mild upward trend.

In summary: the gold price in 2030 should reach about 5000 USD, but the path there will be gradual. I expect three phases of growth, with periods of corrections. It won’t be a linear climb, but the direction is clear. It’s worth watching macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment, but the fundamentals are solid.